The Ballon d’Or is the world’s most prestigious single-player award. Given to the best player every year, it is the pinnacle of independent achievement for any footballer. The trophy has been won by Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi back and forth for the past fifteen years with few exceptions, but the end of their era of their dominance makes this trophy more competitive than it has been in over a decade.
Until a March upset, the Ballon d’Or was almost guaranteed to go to Mohamed Salah. He won the Premier League with Liverpool, but his squad was knocked out of both the Champions League and the Carabao Cup. While it is possible to win the Ballon d’Or without the Champions’ League victory under your belt—Rodri did last year— there are enough other candidates that a victory for Salah has become unlikely. His remaining chance lies in his individual record—not a footnote by any means. He leads Europe with 56 goals and assists (G/A) this season.
The current frontrunner is Raphinia. He’s played a record season with 53 G/A, just three short of Salah’s; though with Liverpool out of the Champions League, Barcelona stands as the favorite for the trophy. Raphinia has a close partner- ship with Robert Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal, all three of whom have great numbers from the season. Lewandowski or Yamal also are contenders for the Ballon, but provided Barcelona win the Champions League, it remains likely that Raphinia will win instead.
A surprising emergee from 2025 is Ousmane Dembele. Once labeled a washout at Barcelona, he has found his blazing hot form in Paris Saint-Germain (PSG). The Frenchman has registered 23 goals in 22 games in 2025 alone, becoming the top scorer in Europe thus far. His partnership with Kvaratskhelia and Barcola has proven to be a force to be reckoned with, already knocking Liverpool and Aston Villa out of the Champions League. Although Dembele has been in excellent form, his chances at winning the Ballon d’Or won’t be realistic until he’s snagged the Champion’s League with PSG. If PSG manages to pick up their first Champions League, there is no doubt who will carry the Ballon.
For the moment, it’s hard to say who will win, but hopes run high in all directions. There is little doubt that the Ballon d’Or is almost entirely reliant on the winner of the Champions League. If either Raphinia or Dembele’s respective teams are able to win, they can lift the trophy, and if Arsenal or Inter Milan are able to win, Salah puts himself back in the race without a clear candidate between the two teams.
This article also appears in our April 2025 print edition.
