The 2024 presidential election has come to a close with former President Donald Trump elected as the 47th President of the United States. While the Republican president elect’s biggest strength was in the votes of the White working-class voters, with eight in ten Trump voters being White according to AP News, Trump’s victory was fueled by a large increase of Hispanic and Latino votes.
According to an exit poll conducted by Edison Research, some 46% of self-identified Hispanic voters chose Trump compared to the 32% in the 2020 election. In Pennsylvania, one of the battleground states, exit polls suggested that Latinos in Pennsylvania amounted to about 5% of the total vote and Trump obtained 42% of that vote compared to 27% in the 2020 election. This increase is surprising, as Hispanics have sided with the Democratic Party for the last couple decades. Trump’s share of Hispanic votes this election was the highest for a Republican presidential candidate in exit polls going back to the 1970s. What was responsible for the shift of the Latino vote?
Economic stability was a huge factor in Latinos’ shift to the right. According to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, Hispanics skew more working-class than the white majority, with larger shares of Hispanics lacking college degrees. Trump’s campaign hoped to target the working class, which attracted many younger Hispanics, who have been exposed to inflation and soaring interest rates for mortgages. Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the non-partisan UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative, explained, “Republicans have consistently beaten Democrats on connecting voters with the economy. This was a referendum on the economy, and that has consistently been the number one, two, and three issues for Hispanic voters.” In an interview with BBC, Samuel Negron, a Pennsylvania state constable and a member of the Puerto Rican community in Allentown, stated, “We liked the way things were four years ago…out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents.” Hispanics who voted for Trump criticized the rising inflation rates—and blamed the Democratic Party. Another voter, Ted Dietzler, said in an interview with BBC, “Inflation is a big deal, and I don’t think Harris quite gets it.”
Another important reason for this voter shift was a rightward shift on immigration. In the September NBC News poll, 35% of Latinos polled that immigration hurts more than it helps, the highest share of Latino voters to say so in 20 years of surveys. Kalman Nunez told NBC News that the election ultimately came down to immigration and jobs. “Immigration is out of control. Trump is going to end that,” he said. Daniel Campo, a Venezuelan-American voter, shared similar thoughts. He told the BBC, “You have to do it the right way. I came the right way. Things have to be done legally.”
Donald Trump has won more of the Hispanic vote than any other Republican candidate before in decades. The Democratic Party now must figure out how to win back the votes they lost.
This article also appears in our November 2024 print edition.
