Despite the decline in headline news coverage of COVID-19, spikes and surges in cases still occur four years after 2020. In fact, this past summer saw many US states quickly grow in cases and levels of COVID-19 in wastewater samples.
Wastewater samples are collected at sewage treatment plants and provide crucial information about COVID-19 rates. They are such an important measure in determining the number of COVID-19 cases because they eliminate the variable factor of whether people report their test, or even test for the infection at all.
While the United States has seen a significant surge in COVID-19 this summer, the country has dealt with larger waves in the four years since the pandemic started. Furthermore, while cases are ticking up, emergency room visits and deaths due to the disease have remained low, which is one of the most important factors in determining the need for immediate action.
Although COVID-19 cases over the summer have become routine, the same pattern does not hold for other infections. With influenza, years and years of data have shown cases to start ramping up in late fall, with the peak of cases occurring in late winter.
COVID-19 patterns are much harder to predict due to the limited data from the small timescale ever since COVID-19 first started circulating. While the infection seems to peak in winter, surges have also occurred during the past couple of summers. Mapping out when surges will happen becomes important when deciding the ideal time to administer COVID-19 vaccine shots. While an obvious choice is early fall, that timing fails to consider any summer surges. Although many Americans have yet to receive the latest COVID-19 shots, the CDC still recommends the vaccine for all individuals older than 6 months. The FDA just approved two new vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna that target the KP.2 strain of COVID-19. While this isn’t the same strain mostly circulating now, it is similar enough in structure to still be an effective vaccine. A third vaccine targeting the JN.1 strain from the company Novavax still awaits FDA approval.
As we head into fall, and possibly another COVID-19 wave this winter, staying vaccinated could be vitally important in keeping the infection that has terrorized the United States since 2020 at bay.
