In a race that pits efficiency against accumulation and includes rich debates on supporting casts, strength of schedule, stat padding, and legacy, this scribe contends that Gillette Stadium’s kid QB Drake Maye shaves the Rams’ Matthew Stafford for MVP by a razor-thin margin. In his sophomore season, Maye has put New England back on the football map, dicing defenses to the tune of a 14–3 record and second seed in the AFC. 37-year-old Stafford finished as Vegas’ favorite for the award, likewise posting a red-carpet campaign, guiding a high-powered offense to a 12–5 record in the toughest division in the NFL. While votes were due before the playoffs, the MVP will be unveiled on February 5th. Here’s why the night should belong to Maye.
Stafford’s compelling case is buoyed by his NFL-leading 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns. Despite these gaudy counting stats, Maye’s season was statistically superior. Maye led the NFL with a 72% completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt, 9.1% completion percentage over expected, 0.28 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback, and 9.1 air yards per attempt. In those categories, Stafford ranked 17th, 7th, 16th, 3rd, and 2nd, respectively. According to CBS Sports, Maye is the only QB since tracking began 20 years ago to lead the league in both completion percentage and air yards per attempt, a testament to his remarkable explosiveness and consistency. While the gap in efficiency metrics is relatively wide, Stafford’s lead in yards and touchdowns is comparably meek. When comparing total yards, which sums passing and rushing, Maye actually leads Stafford 4,844 to 4,708. Stafford’s lead in total touchdowns is a looming 46 to 35, though that number is aided by a record-tying 8 touchdown passes from the 1-yard line.
Strength of schedule is the greatest talking point for Boston radio pundits since the Will Campbell arm length saga of draft season. The Pats sliced through the NFL’s easiest slate of games in over a quarter-century. The Rams’ schedule, meanwhile, ranked as the 7th-hardest of 2025 based on opponent win percentage. Stafford went 5–3 with 22 touchdowns against teams above .500, while Maye tallied a 1–2 record and only two TDs. This argument has merit when evaluating the fraudulence of the Patriots’ 14–3 record, but its relevance to the MVP race is minimal. When comparing the defensive might of opponents, on average, Maye faced the 20th ranked defense by defensive EPA, while Stafford faced the 16th. That gap is significant but bridged by Maye through his stellar statistics and the context behind his season.
The Mayo-Maye Patriots of 2024 came in at an abysmal 4–13, and when considering the Most Valuable Player, it is essential to consider where their team would be without their star. Maye’s second-year surge has blossomed—despite an average supporting group led by Stefon Diggs—and Stafford has a Hollywood cast starring receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
In the twilight of his career, an MVP would be a feather in the cap of a Hall of Fame career for Stafford. But Maye had the superior season and should get flowers for his performance.
