After a 14–3 season and a 28-16 win over the Texans in the Divisional round, the Patriots are hot. So hot, in fact, that it’s easy to forget where they were less than a year ago. Coming off a 4–13 season, it seemed doubtful that the team would end this year with a winning record, let alone earn the second seed in the AFC and make a run for the super bowl.
The Pats started the season off 1-2 after losses to the abysmal 3-14 Raiders and mediocre Steelers. But they quickly turned things around, with a 42-13 win against the Panthers kicking off a 10-game win streak that would last until mid-December. In the streak-snapping Week 15 loss to Josh Allen and the Bills, the Patriots at one point led 21-0. But they finished strong and tied for the best record in the league, missing out on the first seed only on a tiebreaker with Denver.
This year was also marked by stellar performances by individual Patriots. First-year head coach Mike Vrabel leads the race for Coach of The Year. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson had a breakout year, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt with 9 touchdowns, and is second in odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year. And that’s not even mentioning the Patriots’ not-so-secret weapon: Drake Maye. Maye, in the thick of the MVP race in his sophomore season, leads the league in almost all efficiency metrics, and ranks top five in most counting stats.
Despite their statistical success this year, the Patriots have faced a barrage of accusations of being advantaged by their cushy schedule, and they are not without merit. The Patriots’ slate ranks as the easiest in the league, with a combined opponent win rate of 0.429, and falls within the 10 easiest of the Super Bowl era. With that said, this may not necessarily be a bad sign. Of the previous 10 lowest opponent-strength seasons in NFL history, three have ended with Super Bowl titles, including the 1999 Greatest Show on Turf Rams, which the 2025 Patriots have consequently drawn comparisons to.
Going into their primetime Wild Card game against the Chargers, the Pats were only slightly favored at home. The matchup started slow, with no points gained in the first quarter and the Patriots taking a 6-3 lead at half with two field goals. As it turned out, three points was all the Chargers would get, and the Patriots added another field goal and a fourth-quarter touchdown to ice the victory in a suffocating defensive performance. The playoff win was the first for the Pats since the 2019 Super Bowl.
In the following divisional matchup, the Patriots stayed in Foxborough and went up against the Houston Texans. With an elite top-5 defense and a franchise quarterback in CJ Stroud, the game was expected to be close. But this all came crashing down in a brutal 28-16 loss. Stroud specifically had an abysmal performance, throwing 4 interceptions, including a pick-six.
Finally, an ugly 10–7 win in the AFC Championship, which saw Drake Maye throw for under 100 yards, sent the Patriots to the big game for an NFL-record 12th time in franchise history. They are coming in as 5-point underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks, the first time the Patriots haven’t been favored in a Super Bowl since 2002.
This article also appears in our January 2026 print edition.
